Prediction market
A prediction market lets one bet directly on political or other hard-to-control events. An assassination market is the best known example.In July 2003, the U.S. Department of Defense publicized a Policy Analysis Market and on their website speculated that additional topics for markets might include terrorist attacks. A critical backlash quickly denounced the program as a "terrorism futures market" and the Pentagon hastily gave it the axe.
But betting markets are quietly gaining ground as prediction tools. Orange juice futures, for instance, are said to predict the weather in Florida better than meteorologists do. And the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a virtual market game in which players buy and sell shares of movies, actors, directors, and film-related options, correctly predicted 35 of 2002's 40 big-category Oscar nominees.
